The Sixershope to be rewarded next Tuesday for their putrid 2015-16 season, a campaign that saw them lose nearly as many games (72) as the record-setting Warriors won (73).
Unlike the NFL draft, which allocates picks based on records and tie breakers, the NBA’s lottery gives teams finishing out of the playoff picture a chance at landing the top pick. By virtue of their last-place finish, Philadelphia has the highest odds of taking Ben Simmons (or Brandon Ingram) to start the festivities in June’s draft.
There is also a chance Philly gets the No. 4 pick too, with the Lakers’ traded first-round selection too-3 protected. The Kings, which have just a 1.9 percent chance of getting the top pick, would swap it with Philly should Sacramento win the lottery, upping Philly’s No. 1 odds to 26.9.
Here’s a brief look at a handful of interesting scenarios in the first round, which also guarantees the Sixers the 24th and 26th overall picks due to other trades they’ve previously made.
Best case: 11.8 percentchance of1st and 4th overall
There is a 26.9 percent chance Philly gets the No. 1 pick, and there’s a 44.2 percent chance the Lakers finish outside the top 3, forking their pick over to the Sixers. In this scenario, Philly could add two of the draft’s top players and really compliment their big men with a wingman and point guard.
Next best: 3.3 percent chance of1st and 5th overall
This would similarly be an excellent scenario for the Sixers, with the Lakers guaranteed to get a pick between 1-and-5.
Acceptable: 10 percent chance of only 1st overall
If the Sixers win the lottery but the Lakersfall in place where they are supposed to, at two (or up one at three), the Lakers pick would go to them leaving Philly with just the top selection.
Also acceptable: 32 percent chance of getting Lakerspick and not No. 1 pick
In this situation, which has the highest statistical likelihood, the Sixers would pick at either 2 or 3, and also at 4 or 5 with the Lakers pick unprotected.
Not good: 19.9 percent chance of the Lakers getting the top pick
If the Lakers draw No. 1, their pick stays in L.A. and the Sixers pick just once, at 2, 3 or 4.