Lets compare two quarterback stats lines through six games this year.
QB1: 1,959 yards, 13 touchdowns, 2 incerceptions, 65.7 completion precentage, 4-2 record
QB2: 1,584 yards, 13 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 60.9 completion percentage, 5-1 record
One of those two stat lines belongs to five-time Super Bowl champion, 12 time Pro Bowler, four time Super Bowl MVP and two time NFL MVP Tom Brady
One of those belongs to a second-year player who has zero of everything Brady has — Carson Wentz.
And yet, if you ask the NFL oddsmakers in Las Vegas, they think the man responsible for statline No. 2, the Eaglez’ Wentz, has an inside track toward winning the league’s most valuable player award.
— Dan Roche (@RochesRWinners) October 17, 2017
According to Bovada, Wentz’ odds are +175 (a $100 bet will win $175 bucks), by far the best odds after six weeks of NFL games. A bet on Brady would pay $400 bucks, more than twice as much. So how does Brady, with better stats so far, have less than half as good a chance at winning the MVP award as Wentz?
Well, first and foremost the recent injury to Aaron Rodgers took out one of the top competitors for the award, as does the looming suspension on Ezekiel Elliott. Gamblers seem a little timid on taking a chance on rookie running back studs Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette and Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are having less-than-stellar seasons.
Wentz is 24-years-old and Brady is 39. Is that a factor? The Eagles, as a team, seem to be more complete and have an easier path to the playoffs in the NFC, compared to Brady in the AFC with the putridly defending Patriots.
Still, Brady’s stats are better and, well, he’s Tom Brady.
Maybe the popularity factor plays a role? Wentz has the top-selling jersey in football and maybe oddsmakers want to see someone other than Brady win the award.
An argument could be made, that Brady’s success on a team otherwise falling apart is enough to earn him the top odds. Still, it’s early and Wentz is the MVP darling (fresh off seven touchdowns in his last two games, both wins over good teams). Will it last? We’ll have to watch and see.