After 10 games the Eagles are 5-5, and stuck in last place in the best division in football.
This record would put Philly in first or second place in five of the other seven divisions in football, but they are stuck in the NFC East, behind the 9-1 Cowboys, the 7-3 Giants and the 6-3-1 Redskins.
That means if they want to defy everyone’s preseason predictions and make it to the postseason, they’ll need to nab a Wild Card spot, as bridging a four-game deficit with six to play to win the East is all but impossible.
So what are their chances?
The Eagles can more or less control their own fate if they can take care of business in the games ahead. Four of their six final games are at home with three of those home games against their NFC East foes. They also host the Packers on Monday Night Football and play the Ravens and Bengals on the road. They would hold tie breakers against the Vikings and Falcons but not the Lions or (as of now) their fellowNFC East foes.
Predictionmachine.com cites Philly as having an 18.8 percent chanceof winning a playoff spot through their 50,000-simulation formula. Their breakdown has both the ‘Skins and Giants winning Wild Card spots.
On another simulation site, fivethirtyeight.com has the Eagles with a slightly higher chance — 28 percent — but with a 13 percent drop after last week. That’s because not only did the Eagles falter against Seattle in Week 11, but all three NFC East teams also won.
The Eagles are more or less on life support, and need to string together five wins in their last six games if they want to control their own fate. Nine wins would give them a very unlikely outside shot and would leave them dependent on help from others.
Philadelphia and Green Bay kick off at 8:30 p.m. on ESPN next Monday.